文章摘要
梁 潇,李 枫.轨道交通接驳方式选择行为分析——以上海松江大学城为例[J].交通运输研究,2015,1(1):43-47.
轨道交通接驳方式选择行为分析——以上海松江大学城为例
Choice Behavior of Urban Rail Access Modes:A Case Study of Shanghai Songjiang University Town
  
DOI:
中文关键词: 城市轨道交通  接驳方式  非集计模型  Nested Logit模型  学生出行行为
英文关键词: urban rail transit  railway access modes  disaggregate model  Nested Logit Model  students travel behavior
基金项目:
作者单位
梁 潇 同济大学 交通运输工程学院 
李 枫 同济大学 交通运输工程学院 
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中文摘要:
      基于上海松江大学城站轨道衔接方式选择行为的调查数据,对城市轨道交通接驳方式选择行为进行研究,从大学城学生个体角度分析学生群体的出行特征和规律,合理有效地调整交通结构,进而优化城市轨道交通服务水平,增加城市轨道交通的吸引力。基于Nested Logit非集计模型,建立两种不同分组选择支的轨道交通衔接方式选择模型进行参数标定,对比模型的优比度、分支相关系数和命中率,择优选择精度较高的模型。根据建模结果,在调查数据分析的基础上,对不同接驳方式的分担率进行预测。预测结果为:公共汽车的分担率最高,为59.9%,即公共汽车仍为学生选择的主要接驳方式,出租车的分担率次之,自行车分担率最低。最后,对NL模型进行应用。研究发现,对于学生群体而言,提高出租车的起步价对出租车的分担率并无较大影响。综合比较性别、接驳时间、接驳费用等影响因素,发现性别对学生接驳方式的选择有较大影响。
英文摘要:
      Based on the data from the survey of the mode choice behavior of the students travel in Shanghai Songjiang University Town, a study on the choice behavior of the urban transit mode was studied by identifying the characteristics and norms of student group travel from the perspective of the student individual travel behavior. The aim was to adjust the transportation structure rationally and effectively so as to optimize the service of the urban rail transit and increase its attraction. On the basis of the Nested-Logit Model theory, two kinds of NL models with different choice branch structures were established, and then the likelihood ration index, inclusive value parameters and hit ratio of the two models were compared, thus the model with higher precision was optimally selected. In accordance with the results of the model, the share rate on the different access modes was predicted based on the survey data analysis. The result showed that the sharing rate of bus was 59.9%, which is the highest. The conclusion was that bus was the major access mode for the students while the share rate of the taxi ranked the second and that of the bicycle ranked the lowest. Finally, as far as the student group was concerned in the application of the NL model, there was no noticeable impact on the sharing rate of taxi even if the starting fare of the taxi rose. A comprehensive comparison of the influencing factors like gender, access time and access costs indicated that gender has the relatively great impact on the choice of the student′s access mode.
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